Saturday, June 22, 2013

In fantasy football it is often claimed that a player has a very stable or consistent output while other players are considered unstable or inconsistent. These statements refer to the players point output on a week to week basis. Some people will argue that you're better off with consistent players and thus discount the players with high week to week variation. I'm writing this article to argue that variance should have no effect on your decisions while drafting players and I will give a few arguments as to why high variant players can be to your advantage.

Statistically if both teams have a Gaussian distribution the variance has no effect on the probability of victory for either team. The probability of victory for either team would be...

(E[x] = Expected or mean value of x (essentially points per game), P[x] = Probability that x wins)

P[TeamA] = E[TeamA]/(E[TeamA] + E[TeamB])

Sunday, June 16, 2013

Welcome to another installment of “Over/Under” where I highlight a player and determine some projections based on past tendencies and then state whether I think they will go “over or under” those projections. The criteria will be different for each player based on position and situation.

Today we are going to talk about a player who has been a former number one overall pick in dynasty leagues and a lightning rod for debate this off-season, Houston Texans running back Arian Foster. We will put his betting line at 1,500 total yards and 12.5 total touchdowns.

I’ve been playing dynasty fantasy football for 15 years now and barring injury, I have never seen the dynasty community bail on a player faster than they have on Foster. I’ve mentioned it before; I often pick my topic based on Twitter conversations and trends. The Foster debate is never ending. You can pretty much pick a night and find someone arguing about Foster’s outlook and downward trend. They cite age, yards per carry, number of touches and more. If that doesn’t work, a very specific, obscure metric that eliminates 95% of the field will pop up to support whatever they’re trying to convince you of.

The dreaded age of the performance cliff for running backs has historically been at age 30, Foster will celebrate his 27th birthday just before week one of his

Highly Productive QBs Are Even More Prevalent

Many of you who are reading this are likely to have participated in fantasy football during the 2000s, and a number of you likely began owning teams in the ‘90s. If that includes you, then you undoubtedly are familiar with the draft strategy of selecting RBs with each of your first two draft picks. That practice was essentially unchallenged for numerous years by fantasy experts and owners alike. And it was extremely logical considering the mammoth emphasis that NFL franchises placed upon their rushing attacks. Some owners even employed three of their first four picks to quickly build a stable of backs, while the quarterbacks and wide receiver positions were designated with lower priorities during the draft process. But that philosophy began to evolve in recent years to correspond with alterations in the offensive approach by NFL teams. The degree to which passing attacks have exploded has been well chronicled, as has the fact that highly productive QBs have become increasingly prevalent. Signal callers are now entrusted with an ever increasing responsibility to generating sizable yardage and TDs. That in turn has entrenched them atop the fantasy point leader board in recent years. And that will occur again this season, as prolific QB play should be more prevalent than ever for fantasy owners. The influx of exceptional new talent at the position during the 2012 season – RG3, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Colin Kaepernick – will merge with the collection of highly effective veterans to supply a massive number of enticing options during your drafts this summer.

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