In fantasy football it is often claimed that a player has a very stable or consistent output while other players are considered unstable or inconsistent. These statements refer to the players point output on a week to week basis. Some people will argue that you're better off with consistent players and thus discount the players with high week to week variation. I'm writing this article to argue that variance should have no effect on your decisions while drafting players and I will give a few arguments as to why high variant players can be to your advantage.
Statistically if both teams have a Gaussian distribution the variance has no effect on the probability of victory for either team. The probability of victory for either team would be...
(E[x] = Expected or mean value of x (essentially points per game), P[x] = Probability that x wins)
P[TeamA] = E[TeamA]/(E[TeamA] + E[TeamB])
Statistically if both teams have a Gaussian distribution the variance has no effect on the probability of victory for either team. The probability of victory for either team would be...
(E[x] = Expected or mean value of x (essentially points per game), P[x] = Probability that x wins)
P[TeamA] = E[TeamA]/(E[TeamA] + E[TeamB])
