Post 2013 Value Based Drafting Numbers

Value based drafting can be an extremely useful metric when analyzing trends in previous fantasy football seasons for future use. For example, it could be used to gauge whether going RB heavy last year (as many suggested) really was a good strategy or if this line of thought was flawed.

This metric essentially compares each players point total to the point total of a baseline player for each position by subtracting the baseline players point total from each players point total. When using value based drafting the most important factor is the method used to pick the baseline player at each position. This article chooses its baseline players as explained in this article. Essentially the baseline player for each position is set to be the average number of players drafted at that position in the first 10 rounds of the fantasy football draft.

For example, if last year on average in a 10 team league 40 running backs were drafted in the first 10 rounds then the baseline would be set to 40. The baselines used for this example are based on 12 team leagues and on average: 17 QB's, 43 RB's, 40 WR's, 12 TE's, 6 DEF's, and 2 K's were drafted in the first 10 rounds of a 12 team draft thus the baselines were set at 17, 43, 40 and 12 respectively (DEF's and K's were neglected).

The most noteworthy thing to point out from the value based drafting results for the 2013 fantasy football season is that Jamaal Charles was the highest VBD point scorer with 215 VBD points outscoring LeSean McCoy by 33 points. He also edged out Peyton Manning by 34 points even in Peyton's record setting season that included 55 passing touchdowns. The quarterback position drops off very quickly after Peyton and Drew Brees which shows that although quarterbacks score a lot of points because they all score a lot of points they are often not as valuable as other positions such as running back. Running backs and wide receivers both drop off much more slowly although running backs begin to drop off at an accelerated rate as they near the baseline. Jimmy Graham managed to dominate the tight end value based drafting points as expected nearly doubling the amount of points earned by number two scorer, Vernon Davis. This shows that an early TE can be valuable but typically only a pick on either Jimmy Graham or Ron Gronkowski (if you are willing to take a risk) will yield value early on in the draft. Also the tight end position drops off quickly after the top 6 tight ends so it is typically best not to end up with the last tight end.

Value based drafting numbers from the 2012 season can be seen HERE.

All of the value based drafting results can be seen below based on 12 team standard scoring ESPN leagues. You can compare any two position tables by clicking on the table headers.

QB RB WR TE

QB RB WR TE

QUARTERBACKS PTS VBD PTS 1. Peyton Manning, Den 406 181 2. Drew Brees, NO 348 123 3. Cam Newton, Car 282 57 4. Andrew Luck, Ind 279 54 5. Andy Dalton, Cin 277 52 6. Philip Rivers, SD 276 51 7. Matthew Stafford, Det 267 42 8. Russell Wilson, Sea 256 31 9. Colin Kaepernick, SF 253 28 10. Tony Romo, Dal 252 27 11. Nick Foles, Phi 251 26 12. Ben Roethlisberger, Pit 248 23 13. Tom Brady, NE 241 16 14. Matt Ryan, Atl 239 14 15. Alex Smith, KC 238 13 16. Ryan Tannehill, Mia 225 0 17. Carson Palmer, Ari 209 -16 18. Robert Griffin III, Wsh 200 -25 19. Joe Flacco, Bal 194 -31 20. Geno Smith, NYJ 179 -46 21. Eli Manning, NYG 162 -63 22. Aaron Rodgers, GB 162 -63 23. Jay Cutler, Chi 160 -65 24. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ten 158 -67 25. Chad Henne, Jac 152 -73 26. Mike Glennon, TB 152 -73 27. Terrelle Pryor, Oak 132 -93 28. Josh McCown, Chi 131 -94 29. EJ Manuel, Buf 124 -101 30. Sam Bradford, StL 114 -111 31. Jason Campbell, Cle 107 -118 32. Christian Ponder, Min 100 -125 33. Matt Cassel, Min 99 -126 34. Michael Vick, Phi 97 -128 35. Matt Schaub, Hou 97 -128 36. Case Keenum, Hou 97 -128 37. Jake Locker, Ten 92 -133 38. Brandon Weeden, Cle 84 -141 39. Kellen Clemens, StL 79 -146 40. Matt McGloin, Oak QB 74 -151

RUNNING BACKS PTS VBD PTS 1. Jamaal Charles, KC 295 215 2. LeSean McCoy, Phi 262 182 3. Matt Forte, Chi 251 171 4. Marshawn Lynch, Sea 224 144 5. Knowshon Moreno, Den 220 140 6. Eddie Lacy, GB 198 118 7. Adrian Peterson, Min 194 114 8. Chris Johnson, Ten 189 109 9. DeMarco Murray, Dal 189 109 10. Fred Jackson, Buf 175 95 11. Ryan Mathews, SD 175 95 12. Reggie Bush, Det 174 94 13. Frank Gore, SF 166 86 14. Alfred Morris, Wsh 160 80 15. Le'Veon Bell, Pit 160 80 16. Joique Bell, Det 151 71 17. Zac Stacy, StL 150 70 18. Giovani Bernard, Cin 149 69 19. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac 132 52 20. Danny Woodhead, SD 132 52 21. DeAngelo Williams, Car 128 48 22. Rashad Jennings, Oak 127 47 23. Pierre Thomas, NO 118 38 24. Rashard Mendenhall, Ari 115 35 25. Andre Ellington, Ari 115 35 26. Donald Brown, Ind 114 34 27. LeGarrette Blount, NE 110 30 28. C.J. Spiller, Buf 109 29 29. Stevan Ridley, NE 108 28 30. Ray Rice, Bal 107 27 31. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin 107 27 32. Steven Jackson, Atl 105 25 33. Ben Tate, Hou 100 20 34. Trent Richardson, Ind 99 19 35. Chris Ivory, NYJ 94 14 36. Darren Sproles, NO 90 10 37. Bilal Powell, NYJ 89 9 38. Bobby Rainey, TB 87 7 39. Lamar Miller, Mia 85 5 40. Mike Tolbert, Car 83 3 41. Arian Foster, Hou 81 1 42. Shane Vereen, NE 80 0 43. Montee Ball, Den 80 0 44. Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl 76 -4 45. James Starks, GB 74 -6 46. Daniel Thomas, Mia 74 -6 47. Darren McFadden, Oak 71 -9 48. Marcel Reece, Oak 70 -10 49. Andre Brown, NYG 67 -13 50. Roy Helu, Wsh 65 -15 51. Bernard Pierce, Bal 55 -25 52. Chris Ogbonnaya, Cle 54 -26 53. Jason Snelling, Atl 53 -27 54. Knile Davis, KC 53 -27 55. Shonn Greene, Ten 52 -28 56. Kendall Hunter, SF 52 -28 57. Doug Martin, TB 51 -29 58. Brandon Bolden, NE 51 -29 59. Jordan Todman, Jac 47 -33 60. Bryce Brown, Phi 46 -34 61. Mark Ingram, NO 45 -35 62. Willis McGahee, Cle 43 -37 63. Brandon Jacobs, NYG 42 -38 64. Michael Bush, Chi 42 -38 65. Peyton Hillis, NYG 39 -41 66. Toby Gerhart, Min 38 -42 67. Matt Asiata, Min 33 -47 68. Darrel Young, Wsh 32 -48 69. Edwin Baker, Cle 32 -48 70. Ronnie Hillman, Den 32 -48