Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Every year, fantasy football has a few busts. Last year there was Ryan Mathews, Shonn Greene, and Michael Crabtree to name a few. A bust is when any fantasy player under preforms the fantasy rank they were given during the off season. On this list I will include busts from all positions that I think are most likely to bust this season. It is somewhat of a do not draft list. The number next to the players name is simply for organization and isn't any sort of a ranking system. I strongly recommend that you read my rankings and sleepers as well (links on the side bar). Okay enough chitter chatter lets get started with the Fantasy Football Bust list.



AnalyzeFantasyFootball.com 's Fantasy Football Bust list

Quarterbacks

1. David Garrard - Garrard has been a solid quarterback for the Jaguars but he has never been much of a star in the NFL. He has not had any great post season success or any real proving moments in his career. This year the Jaguars drafted Blaine Gabbert. They traded up to get Gabbert which means they think pretty highly of him. Head coach Jack Del Rio said that they would have a quarterback competition to help push Garrard. These to me are the first sign that says "if Garrard messes up he will be on a short lease and could be benched." Don't pick Garrard as your back up this year or you will probably find yourself dropping him at some point during the season.


2. Mathew Stafford - I read a lot of columns that call Stafford a sleeper due to the explosive group of players around him on offense like Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best. Stafford, if healthy, would probably put up decent numbers. The only problem though is he is never healthy. I saw him injure his shoulder three times. The falls looked pretty soft to be honest, he is just fragile. It's unfortunate for a guy as talented as Stafford but I can't help but see nothing but another shoulder surgery this year.




Running Backs

1. Ryan Grant, RB - Grant is coming back after missing nearly the entire season last year. He was replaced last season by a combination of Brandon Jackson, John Kuhn, and James Starks. Jackson is a great third down back out of the back field and in pass blocking, Kuhn gets the job done in short yardage situations and Starks began to take over the primary rushing role near the end of the season and in the play-offs. Really I would avoid the whole situation there is too much competition. I expect split carries between Grant and Starks with some carries from the other two mixed in as well making a terrible situation for fantasy football. I would avoid the Packer's running back situation at least until more information is known.

2. Steven Jackson, RB - Jackson has been the work horse for the Rams for 8 seasons and is only 29 but he has begun to lose some of his quickness. Last season he only averaged 3.8 yards per carry. He also is one of the leaders among active players in carries with 1,878 rushes and hasn't had more than 5 touchdowns in a season for 4 years. He is setting up for a bust this year. I think he under preforms his ADP and I would avoid him.

3. Jahvid Best, RB - Best had one extremely explosive game last season before suffering a turf toe injury, and then another one on the other foot. He has been known through his career to be very fragile. In the draft this year the Lions drafted Mikel Leshoure, a big back. They drafted Leshoure so that he could help carry the load with Best. They know Best is unlikely to hold up through a full season. He won't have goal line carries either and that one huge game could have been a fluke. Don't waste an early pick on him.

4. Beanie Wells, RB - He was a break out pick for a lot of analysts last year. If you drafted him then you were very unfortunate, he only produced 397 yards and 2 touchdowns all season. This year he still has Tim Hightower to compete with as well as new draft pick Ryan Williams. The fact that the Cardinals drafted another running back when they had two suitable ones means they either think highly of Williams or they think the running backs that they already have won't be able to get the job done or both. Don't bet on a come back season, let another owner draft him.

5. Marshawn Lynch, RB - Lynch had the epic run in the play-offs that everyone remembers but maybe what some casual fans don't realize is that throughout the season excluding the play-offs Lynch only had 737 yards and six touchdowns. He did improve when he was traded to the Seahawks. Even with the change of team he never had more than 89 yards in a game and averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Not exactly star numbers. Avoid him.

Wide Receivers

1. Sidney Rice - Rice missed almost all of last year because he had hip surgery. While he was gone Harvin was putting on quite the show in Minnesota. Harvin proved himself to be extremely fast, versatile, and to have great hands. This year the Vikings will either sign a veteran quarterback or start Christian Ponder, a rookie. Either way I think that it is unlikely that they will be able to support both Rice and Harvin at where they are being drafted. I think Harvin holds up and Rice busts but be careful with either of them.

2. Randy Moss - If you aren't aware that he is a bust yet then you need to study up on your fantasy. Last season he was an extreme disappointment if you drafted him. He managed 393 yards and 5 touchdowns which is in all rights a terrible fantasy season. Basically the way he is being covered he ends up being nothing more than a decoy which is not useful in fantasy football. Right now he is a free agent. His most likely landing spot is with the New York Jets. This year the only upside is after doing terrible and being non-existent last year he could be motivated and facing some single teams for the first time in a while also he would have a decent quarterback in Sanchez. Some receivers have come back after terrible seasons like the one Moss had but most do not. I would stay away from him.
3. James Jones - He was a sleeper for many last year while on the Packers but he is a free agent this year and is likely to leave the Packers. The Packers are unlikely to try and out bid another team for Jones. He has had a lot of dropped passes and has never really put up all that great of numbers. Last season he had 679 yards and five touchdowns. Most likely he will be getting a downgrade at quarterback if he leaves the Packers and unless he lands in a number one or two job then he is not going to produce very well in fantasy. Also the dropped passes make me question him and I'm a Packers fan that watches all of his games.

4. Dez Bryant, Dal - A lot of people love Bryant and think that he will be the sure fire number one this year. I just want to caution on the other side of the argument. When Romo was the quarterback he heavily favored Miles Austin. Once Romo was injured and Kitna was in then Bryant started to explode. There is no doubt that this guy is very talented but I think that people are beginning to expect to much from him. I think that he is risky at the ADP that he is getting drafted at and I will be avoiding him.

Tight Ends

Tony Gonzalez - Tony Gonzalez is now 35 years old and entering his 16th season. He is no longer in his prime but a lot of inexperienced fantasy football players will draft him fairly high because they are unfamiliar with a lot of tight ends in this league. He still gets the job done for the Falcons and if you are desperate then he will be a fine player but last year he only had 656 yards and 6 touchdowns. His yardage total in the past three years has been 1,058 in 2008 to 867 in 2009 to 656 in 2008. He is definitely declining and this will likely be his last season.

Dallas Clark - Clark missed 10 games last season and is now 32 years old. I believe he will begin to decline this year. He is still an elite tight end in this league. The main suggestion for Clark is if you plan to go for one of the elite tight ends I would choose another one who is safer before Clark like Gates, Witten, or Finley. Another worry about Clark is that he has a capable back up in Jacob Tamme who would be able to step into his spot if Clark's production isn't up to standards.

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